Once more unto the breach....

Well, just sent in my fresh new application for a scholarship. As usual, the proposed subject of research is cyclones (and other storms) - to determine how much their intensity, frequency and locations will change under various scenarios of climate change.

So, in a nutshell, that's:
1. Will storms get more frequent?
2. Will storms become more intense?
3. Will storms affect different areas?

And yes, I've included blatant references to Katrina, Rita, Vince and Wilma, as well as studies linking an increase in storminess to a warmer world.

I wonder if I could somehow have included references to tsunamis and earthquakes....nah can't think of a way :-)

For the above three questions wrt to hurricanes / cyclones, my opinions at the moment are : 1) Unknown, as warm temperatures aren't the key criteria - it's actually wind shear, tropical waves etc. 2) Probably. The most intense ones should be able to have more energy to feed off. 3) Probably. Warmer temperatures do help expand the area where cyclones can form, but the 26 degree isotherm is not a guarantee - see Vince this year, Aldonca/Catarina in the South Atlantic in 2004. However, if the geographical area is enlarged, then you might see an increase in storms (see question 1)

However, if warmer temperatures warm the upper atmosphere too, and/or cause an increase in wind shear...all bets are off.

So everyone, send good vibes this way (or rather, to a bundle of paper heading off on a plane). I want to do this with my life, dammit.